Assessing systemic risk of multiple natural hazard events
Natural hazards increasingly occur not as isolated events but as multiple, interacting phenomena (e.g., earthquakes followed by landslides, or compound flooding driven by storm surge and extreme rainfall). These multi-hazard events can trigger cascading failures across interconnected systems such as infrastructure, ecosystems, and socio-economic networks, thereby amplifying overall risk. This topic focuses on assessing the systemic risk arising from multiple natural hazard events by examining how hazard interactions, spatial–temporal dependencies, and system interconnections contribute to non-linear and disproportionate impacts. The study aims to improve understanding of vulnerability propagation and risk amplification beyond single-hazard assessments.
The primary objectives are to:
- Identify and characterize interactions among multiple natural hazards and their cascading effects.
- Assess systemic risk by evaluating how failures propagate across interconnected systems.
- Compare multi-hazard systemic risk outcomes with traditional single-hazard risk assessments.
The methodology will involve a structured literature review followed by a conceptual or semi-quantitative modeling approach. Multi-hazard scenarios will be developed using historical event data or documented case studies. Network-based or system dynamics frameworks may be applied to represent interdependencies among system components. Risk will be assessed using indicators such as exposure, vulnerability, and loss propagation, supported by scenario analysis and sensitivity testing.
Gill, J. C., & Malamud, B. D. (2014). Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards. Reviews of Geophysics, 52(4), 680–722. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445
Pescaroli, G., & Alexander, D. (2018). Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: A holistic framework. Risk Analysis, 38(11), 2245–2257. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13128
Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., & Glade, T. (2012). Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: A review. Natural Hazards, 64(2), 1925–1958. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2
UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction). (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019: Global Risk Assessment Framework. Geneva: UNDRR.
IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844