Towards Caribbean impact-based forecasting of tropical cyclones

The economic and humanitarian impacts of tropical cyclones across the small island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean are very high; and greater than those of larger mainland countries affected. During each hurricane season, different subsets of countries across the Caribbean are impacted by severe wind as well as floods. With Future climate scenarios indicate that tropical cyclones will intensify in the future, urging the communities to take action now.

There are several indications that the Caribbean region can benefit from a collaborative approach to enhance anticipatory action as well as humanitarian response before and after the cyclone passes. In terms of anticipatory action, this requires the development of a regional trigger model for tropical cyclones winds and/or floods. Such a regional digital product is to demonstrate -as a proof-of-concept- to the relevant decision-makers that with the right information at the right time, it’s possible to start early actions. Early actions that prevent damage and fatalities. This proposal focuses on the earlier stages in developing a preliminary regional trigger model.